FOMC-vs-Bonds

Maybe it's the view is just too microscopic. This shows how the fed just follows (lags) the treasury yields set by market forces.

Stocks up, Bonds down. It used to be that way.

i believe the big drop was related to the most recent jobs report. Very strong jobs report which decreases the likelihood of another .5 cut by the FOMC. The market was anticipating another .5 cut so now rates are backing up to reflect the new probabilities.

Good observation. Makes sense... but the other graph shows the Fed has to come down.... they're way behind.

You can see the change by viewing the fedwatch tool at CME. I week ago there was 35% probability of a half point cut. Now there is zero probability.

I would think there is at least a usable filter in this chart. Any ideas?

On that the normalization of the yield curve after an inversion correlates pretty well to the beginning of a recession.