Probably I'm the last one to think of it, but it just occurred to me that I could create an Indicator Set (or multiple sets) of my favorite FRED series to have them at my fingertips.
To find a FRED symbol, search for it at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/. Click on the result and the symbol will be at the end of the chart's title.
To find a FRED symbol, search for it at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/. Click on the result and the symbol will be at the end of the chart's title.
Rename
Nice idea. And by the way, here's an explainer on the discrepancy on your chart (inverted yield curve vs. unemployment at a low):
https://www.npr.org/2023/04/14/1170170563/an-indicator-that-often-points-to-recession-could-be-giving-a-false-signal-this-
https://www.npr.org/2023/04/14/1170170563/an-indicator-that-often-points-to-recession-could-be-giving-a-false-signal-this-
Okay then. NPR in bed in no way affiliated with the U.S. govt knows better that what all of history has told us. There is absolutely no manipulation of the money supply going on and there will never be another recession. Nothing to see here, go back to your TikTok little people!
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2REAL
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2REAL
Eugene - thanks for the indicator! On the inverted yield curve, Cam Harvey a professor at Duke (go Devils!!) who developed this as a measure did indeed say this could be false indicator back in January. After all, no signal is perfect.
Unfortunately his caveat at the time was that the Fed would need to take their foot off the brake for this to happen. In May, he shifted his position and is now saying there will be a recession, it's just a matter of how bad.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pro-take-yield-curve-pioneer-says-this-inversion-warning-is-real-ac0b606
Unfortunately his caveat at the time was that the Fed would need to take their foot off the brake for this to happen. In May, he shifted his position and is now saying there will be a recession, it's just a matter of how bad.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pro-take-yield-curve-pioneer-says-this-inversion-warning-is-real-ac0b606
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